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二季度资本外流好转:外储仍可能进一步下降

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月12日 06:15:41
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(的)(表)(现)(。
  在)(业)(内)(人)(士)(看)(来)(,9月)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(,加)(之)(国)(内)(资)(本)(市)(场)(调)(整)(对)(投)(资)(者)(信)(心)(带)(来)(影)(响)(,未)(来)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(形)(势)(存)(在)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,外)(储)(减)(少)(的)(可)(能)(性)(依)(旧)(存)(在)(。货)(币)(政)(策)(上)(,央)(行)([微)(博)(]将)(延)(续)(稳)(健)(的)(基)(调)(,从)(适)(度)(宽)(松)(更)(偏)(中)(性)(。以)(数)(量)(型)(对)(冲)(工)(具)(对)(冲)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(的)(概)(率)(上)(升)(,预)(计)(年)(内)(仍)(会)(降)(准)(。
  资)(本)(流)(出)(改)(善)(
  招)(商)(证)(券)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(谢)(亚)(轩)(告)(诉)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》,去)(年)(6月)(至)(今)(年)(3月)(下)(旬)(,美)(元)(处)(于)(较)(强)(的)(升)(势)(,使)(得)(国)(内)(的)(企)(业)(和)(个)(人)(增)(加)(持)(有)(对)(外)(资)(产)(,同)(时)(减)(少)(对)(外)(负)(债)(,是)(此)(前)(非)(储)(备)(性)(质)(的)(金)(融)(账)(户)(逆)(差)(的)(最)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。同)(样)(的)(,随)(着)(美)(元)(升)(值)(的)(预)(期)(减)(缓)(,资)(本)(流)(出)(的)(程)(度)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,这)(也)(在)(预)(期)(之)(内)(。
  2015年)(一)(季)(度)(非)(储)(备)(性)(质)(的)(金)(融)(账)(户)(逆)(差)(9782亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,国)(际)(储)(备)(资)(产)(减)(少)(4925亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(。
  日)(前)(,国)(家)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(局)(在)(河)(南)(郑)(州)(举)(办)(2015年)(分)(局)(长)(高)(级)(研)(修)(班)(。外)(管)(局)(局)(长)(易)(纲)(在)(研)(修)(班)(上)(指)(出)(,2015年)(以)(来)(,受)(国)(内)(外)(复)(杂)(多)(变)(的)(经)(济)(形)(势)(影)(响)(,我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(短)(期)(波)(动)(加)(大)(,但)(未)(改)(变)(外)(汇)(供)(求)(趋)(向)(基)(本)(平)(衡)(的)(大)(格)(局)(。
  外)(管)(局)(新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(王)(春)(英)(在)(“2015年)(上)(半)(年)(外)(汇)(收)(支)(数)(据)(有)(关)(情)(况)(”新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(表)(示)(,今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(等)(因)(素)(带)(动)(了)(美)(元)(较)(快)(升)(值)(,一)(季)(度)(美)(元)(指)(数)(上)(升)(9%,并)(在)(3月)(中)(上)(旬)(突)(破)(了)(100,这)(是)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(出)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(推)(动)(力)(。但)(二)(季)(度)(随)(着)(国)(内)(外)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(的)(变)(化)(,资)(金)(流)(出)(的)(势)(头)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(,外)(汇)(供)(求)(趋)(向)(基)(本)(平)(衡)(,说)(明)(目)(前)(美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(的)(影)(响)(仍)(在)(可)(承)(受)(的)(范)(围)(之)(内)(。
  外)(汇)(局)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2015年)(上)(半)(年)(,我)(国)(经)(常)(账)(户)(顺)(差)(9326亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,资)(本)(和)(金)(融)(账)(户)(逆)(差)(5786亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,其)(中)(,非)(储)(备)(性)(质)(的)(金)(融)(账)(户)(逆)(差)(9927亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,储)(备)(资)(产)(减)(少)(4123亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(。
  外)(储)(仍)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(
  接)(下)(来)(9月)(份)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(预)(期)(之)(下)(,导)(致)(美)(元)(仍)(然)(会)(处)(于)(强)(势)(。不)(过)(,谢)(亚)(轩)(对)(本)(报)(表)(示)(:“美)(元)(的)(汇)(率)(也)(会)(超)(调)(,单)(说)(加)(息)(预)(期)(,在)(今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(体)(现)(最)(为)(明)(显)(。而)(9月)(之)(前)(,美)(元)(可)(能)(会)(维)(持)(强)(势)(,但)(是)(对)(资)(本)(流)(出)(的)(效)(应)(可)(能)(没)(有)(那)(么)(强)(。”
  但)(是)(,谢)(亚)(轩)(表)(示)(,和)(此)(前)(的)(形)(势)(有)(所)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,国)(内)(股)(票)(市)(场)(的)(调)(整)(对)(投)(资)(者)(的)(信)(心)(造)(成)(影)(响)(,或)(许)(会)(对)(资)(本)(的)(流)(出)(带)(来)(一)(定)(压)(力)(。
  兴)(业)(证)(券)(研)(究)(所)(副)(所)(长)(、首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(王)(涵)(表)(示)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(窗)(口)(期)(,市)(场)(预)(期)(波)(动)(加)(剧)(,资)(本)(有)(流)(出)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(债)(市)(的)(节)(奏)(,人)(民)(币)(也)(承)(压)(,可)(能)(表)(现)(为)(外)(储)(的)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(。
  易)(纲)(在)(上)(述)(研)(修)(班)(上)(指)(出)(,外)(汇)(管)(理)(部)(门)(坚)(持)(推)(改)(革)(与)(防)(风)(险)(并)(举)(,深)(化)(资)(本)(项)(目)(可)(兑)(换)(改)(革)(,进)(一)(步)(提)(升)(贸)(易)(投)(资)(便)(利)(化)(水)(平)(,高)(度)(重)(视)(事)(中)(事)(后)(监)(管)(,切)(实)(防)(范)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(冲)(击)(,不)(断)(增)(强)(服)(务)(经)(济)(结)(构)(调)(整)(和)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(能)(力)(。
  货)(币)(政)(策)(适)(度)(宽)(松)(更)(偏)(中)(性)(
  从)(货)(币)(政)(策)(来)(看)(,谢)(亚)(轩)(预)(计)(,将)(延)(续)(稳)(健)(的)(基)(调)(,从)(适)(度)(宽)(松)(变)(为)(更)(偏)(中)(性)(。
  8月)(7日)(,人)(民)(银)(行)([微)(博)(]发)(布)(了)(第)(二)(季)(度)(中)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(,对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(和)(经)(济)(抗)(风)(险)(能)(力)(的)(表)(述)(更)(为)(谨)(慎)(,对)(资)(产)(价)(格)(剧)(烈)(调)(整)(的)(风)(险)(和)(稳)(定)(金)(融)(市)(场)(预)(期)(的)(重)(要)(性)(更)(为)(关)(注)(。
  相)(对)(第)(一)(季)(度)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(,二)(季)(度)(报)(告)(删)(掉)(“目)(前)(各)(类)(货)(币)(政)(策)(工)(具)(都)(有)(较)(大)(的)(空)(间)(,能)(够)(有)(效)(调)(节)(和)(供)(给)(流)(动)(性)(,无)(须)(以)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(的)(方)(式)(大)(幅)(扩)(张)(流)(动)(性)(水)(平)(”,增)(加)(“建)(立)(健)(全)(风)(险)(预)(警)(、识)(别)(和)(处)(置)(机)(制)(,注)(重)(稳)(定)(金)(融)(市)(场)(预)(期)(”;删)(掉)(“中)(国)(经)(济)(抗)(风)(险)(能)(力)(较)(强)(”,增)(加)(“从)(中)(长)(期)(看)(,推)(动)(经)(济)(增)(长)(不)(靠)(强)(刺)(激)(而)(依)(靠)(改)(革)(创)(新)(来)(激)(发)(经)(济)(活)(力)(”。
  谢)(亚)(轩)(对)(记)(者)(表)(示)(,从)(央)(行)(的)(表)(述)(来)(看)(,对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(空)(间)(还)(是)(有)(所)(保)(留)(。
  王)(涵)(认)(为)(,近)(期)(,经)(济)(、金)(融)(风)(险)(体)(系)(政)(策)(维)(稳)(必)(要)(性)(仍)(存)(,但)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(时)(点)(临)(近)(,同)(时)(对)(于)(四)(季)(度)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(有)(所)(上)(升)(,市)(场)(对)(于)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(放)(松)(出)(现)(一)(定)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。
  他)(认)(为)(,“外)(部)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(+对)(内)(注)(重)(信)(用)(派)(生)(”意)(味)(着)(使)(用)(价)(格)(型)(工)(具)(的)(概)(率)(下)(降)(;但)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(减)(少)(趋)(势)(放)(缓)(,需)(以)(数)(量)(型)(对)(冲)(工)(具)(对)(冲)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(;专)(项)(债)(券)(发)(行)(更)(需)(充)(裕)(流)(动)(性)(护)(航)(,动)(用)(数)(量)(型)(工)(具)(概)(率)(在)(上)(升)(。
  谢)(亚)(轩)(此)(前)(表)(示)(,发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(分)(化)(加)(剧)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(的)(波)(动)(性)(。在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(状)(况)(难)(以)(大)(幅)(改)(善)(,年)(内)(央)(行)(仍)(有)(可)(能)(下)(调)(法)(定)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(一)(至)(两)(次)(以)(应)(对)(资)(金)(外)(流)(局)(面)(,弥)(补)(基)(础)(货)(币)(缺)(口)(。
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